First, let's be honest: these changes were necessary. No, I don't fly Y or PEY long-haul (although I do sometimes buy regional PEY tickets), but it was idiotic to punish the higher-yielding Y and PEY fliers. I don't think any Diamond member based in Hong Kong could argue with a straight face that it's fair to exclude those people from the CX lounges and hopefully this mints a few more GOs and yes DMs because of it. I could care less if we have more actually loyal CX fliers / payers in the lounges they deserve it.
Second, if I'm nitpicking. I can see a *lot* of new DM members being minted. I already fly at a clip of about 2,500-3,600 CP/year, although last year I burned award points to avoid going much over 1,800, when I can issue a companion GO. I also fly plenty of CX's competitors. I fly J and F long-haul, and generally J and now some PEY short-haul (and btw regional PEY is fantastic for a few hours). What this means for me is I will hit 1,800 points faster. And realistically, unless CX sweetens MPC it probably means I might burn more award points and spend less?! Just a little bit here is the logic.
This year, I've done about 1,500 CP in just shy of 6 months. I'm already actively trying to burn award tickets and fly competitors but even then, it looks virtually impossible for me not to do 1,800 points in 7-8 months.
Next year, if I did the identical flying patterns of this year, it would've been impossible for me not to hit that 1,800 level 1-2 months faster. Aka, I would've hit 1,800 CP in about 5-6 months under the new points regime. The reason is I've done a lot of regional J flying, including some in C and J. As well as some regional sectors in W class. I guess my question is, what's next?
I'm not arguing too hard here, just curious for others' thinking. First, I think a lot of corporate travelers will make it to DM even easier. Although DM ain't an easy program by the standards of Oneworld Emerald, it is still fairly "easy" for anyone at a HK financial firm with a J / F class travel package to hit DM since you are rewarded for biz flights. This will make it even easier for them to score DM.
Second, I'd love to see some additional incentives for 2,400...aka double DM. I've already seen my own patterns shift to "try and hit 1,200 points" to "try and hit 1,800" points once they added the mid-tier incentives. A 2,400 level would make me keep spending on CX I think.