Yeah, the requirement of a no annual fee card makes this tough. I think you need to start by figuring out which airlines are you likely to use, which set of points can transfer to your preferred airlines or their partners--check the award charts to see what the best values are--and look at earning and redemption potentials in each program. Amex MR tends to favor occasional bonuses for transfers to other programs although Amex has been loosening up on category earning bonuses in the last few years while Chase UR tends to favor category earning bonuses (Freedom's quarterly 5X category bonus or the Sapphire Reserve's 3X bonus for dining/travel) without transfer bonuses. I have Citi TYP in reserve, but their history about overall card benefits has been really screwy--see what they did with the value of redeeming TYP for AA flights--so I wouldn't trust that program with a long-term earning strategy.

And I've started paying attention to the occasional redemption sales airlines have conducted--with program devaluations the last several years, I've noticed that airlines (and hotels, witness BW's 10K redemption sale for the winter months) run occasional sales that cut the number of points for redemptions, undoubtedly to boost the impression amongst casual users that their frequent flyer programs aren't as bad as many more experienced travelers paint them to be. There may not be a pattern to these sales, but it's worth being aware of these possibilities, just in case a sale happens during your booking window.

I find myself spending mostly with a Freedom for their quarterly bonuses, a Sapphire Reserve for dining and travel (two big areas of spend for me, earning pretty close to 175K UR annually, so along with the $300 annual travel credit and the enhanced redemption rate compared with other UR cards when using points as a cash substitute, the accelerated earnings rate makes the $450 fee tolerable), and the Amex Everyday Preferred with its enhanced earning rates for MR points.

I'm essentially arguing that you should consider that some annual fee cards might get you to your goal faster.