My $0.02

Upgrades are a form of yield management. If the hotel has substantially more frequent guests aka "elites" than available upgrades, the hotel must determine what's the best way to allocate the limited resources, scarcity for you econ types.

One allocation method is how to disappoint the fewest people. I find that many hotels are quite happy to give you a meaningful upgrade... provided you ask. The theory being that a person who asks for an upgrade and is denied is more likely to be disappointed than someone who doesn't ask.

I also find that at these hotels, the upgrade is based on what you ask for. Ask for an upgrade and you land a junior suite. Ask for a one bedroom suite and you will likely get it...if it's available. Whether the hotel is following the rules or not is above my pay grade.

Accordingly, I ask, politely, for what I want. Generally, if it's available, most hotels oblige.