Originally Posted by
CJKatl
The math is pretty simple. Assume 76 nights per year, Platinum status, two nights per average stay. (Mine was one night average, others I know always do four, so adjust for your specifics.) There would be ~9k welcome gift points per year, splitting between the amounts for different property types. On a $150/night average stay, that's 151.5k points/yr or 13.2 years to LTP.
I don't follow your math. 76 nights * $150/night * (10 points/$ base + 5 points/$ platinum bonus) = 171k points. Add 9k points welcome gifts and the total is 180k, not 151.5k.
I also don't agree that it's pretty simple. Sure, the calculation above is simple, but reality is more complex. In addition to points from room charges and welcome gifts, any kind of frequent traveler is going to have
some points from Marriott's periodic Megabonus promos. Travelers who stay at full-service properties will have some points from eligible dining charges, too. Then there's the effect of rollover nights. These don't impact points totals but they do mean elites can hit the LTP nights requirement faster. And finally, the credit card. Even travelers who don't charge MR stays to an MR credit card, e.g. because they must charge all business travel to a company card, can still find some value in holding the Chase MR Visa in exchange for the signup bonuses.