You mention that you only have 6500 miles in my ANA account, and you plan to transfer the rest of the points from AmEx. ANA is also a SPG partner, and Chase partner i believe.
If you have the miles, snag the available F now, and you can downgrade yourself later should availability open. the mileage difference can be applied for future trips!
The F could be gone by this time, hot comodity over christmas!
If thats too much, I would suggest you consider alternative transport (paid ticket, fly economy etc.), rather than hoping for a miracle.