It is getting really complicated now... I have a friend flying HKG-ORD with his family in PEY and all of them (1x CXAM, 2 nonmember) were upgraded to J at check-in. Now I rather believe that op-up is completely random.

CX members trump all OW elites? That's strange... They enhanced their MPC program to drive people away to other FFP, and now they want to get rid of them completely? Doesn't matter anyways with the bid upgrade