Thanks all. Booked the flights. Of the 6 first seats, 5 were already blocked on the seat map so hopefully having a full complement of F pax will somewhat reduce the chances of an equipment swap.

I can see from the flight records that equipment swaps happen 1-2 times a week on CX472, so fingers crossed I catch a break. At least the odds are in my favour. Honestly, as long as I could get into Pier F, I could handle the downgrade.

The plan is to hit the Pier F lounge about midday and have a leisurely lunch and foot massage before a 3:25pm departure. It's on the day of the Aussie Rules grand final so I'll settle down in the lounge with a few Betsy beers and watch that on my phone (or the TV if they'll switch it to Australia Plus). If any AFL fans are travelling that day, I'll see you there!

Oh yeah, then I get a couple of days in Taipei, that will be fun too.

Interesting side note - according to the internets, equipment swaps ARE grounds for a refund under the AA Conditions of Carriage. But not CX.