It's a question that only someone with detailed knowledge of Turkish Airlines' procedures will be able to answer - particularly, details like whether or not married segments are taken into consideration, or whether the upgrade space comes out of the J or the I bucket.

If it's J, then the odds would seem quite good; if the latter, then considerably less so.

Since Aeroplan don't know these answers, I've come seeking expert advice.

Going by the relevant Aeroplan charts, it's a total of 50,000 miles to upgrade 20 hours of flying time, which seems to me a decent bargain.