Originally Posted by thijsseh

You can try to start collecting historical data yourself with ExpertFlyer. I did this some time ago. Set up alarms for F award availability on the fight you want to investigate. You are allowed 30 alarms in EF, so set them up for the next 30 days and as time goes on and 'old' alarms expire you can set new ones.
Set up a spreadsheet to show when a certain award became available.
You should get an idea, but it's not foolproof. As a result of my investigation I was relatively certain that space would open up for my fight about 4 days in advance, but it did not materialise.....