Update: I did book the 9.15 bus about a week ahead of departure. I even splurged and spent the extra 9 SEK for a reserved seat.
My UA flight arrived almost an hour early, but we had to wait on the tarmac for 30 minutes due to no gates available. I quickly made my way to immigrations, and my one checked bag (with priority tag) was amongst the first off the plane. I was in the arrivals hall around 7.45.
I had a fika, recharged my phone, then boarded the bus. Never questioned how much my bag weighed. Four hours later, I was back in the arms of my loved ones.
We'll probably take Bus4You for our return trip. It's nice to basically get off the bus and go directly to the Clarion Arlanda, especially since we have to wake up at 5am. The price differential between the bus and train (+ Arlanda Express) makes it practically a wash.