1. I estimate there is at least a 30% - 40% probability of Air Canada succesfully surmounting this crisis and emerging successfully from court protection this year.

2. However, I am afraid I have come to the conclusion that the airline is now playing the "end game". Even if it survives this crisis, I cannot see it changing enough to survive the next crisis, or the one after that.

3. Even if it survives, Air Canada's relative position will decline so that within 4-5 years, it's dissappearance could be tolerated (with difficulty!) by the travelling public.

4. As for the chances of the government "doing" something to keep the company afloat, anything is possible. There are many people, no doubt, who desire this. On the other hand, I have no involvement with Air Canada (or any other airline). I do not even have a lot of Aeroplan points. I do vote in elections and write to politicians occaisionally. There may be a lot of people like me. We cannot assume what kind of pressure Ottawa is under.

These are just my opinions, as the original poster requested.