I have an upcoming flight from NRT to LHR on BA6 in just over two weeks time booked using Avios in F cabin on the 787-9.

I am based in CNS and have two choices to get to NRT:

1) CNS-NRT direct on JQ 25 787-8 "business" max (about $1,000)

2) CNS-BNE/overnight/BNE-NRT in QF business class (40,000 AA points)

Both are reserved.

The first option is attractive in offering the more direct itinerary and current loading suggests I may be lucky and get a free seat next to me.

BUT when I look at the recent flight stats for JQ25 that flight has been cancelled twice in the last week!

I cannot afford to miss the BA6!

The second option strikes me as a far more reliable options (and saves about $700) but mean back tracking by 2 + 2 hours and an extra night of travel.

Grateful to hear from anyone with insights into the cancellations of JQ25 (aircraft unserviceable or in maintenance and due back?) or opinions generally on the wisdom of relying on the JQ option over the QF option....

As things stand I think I have no real choice but to take second, QF, option!