Originally Posted by
Duke787
As I noted yesterday a worldwide ban is a no-brainer. They'd be daft to only do the EU and pretend that terrorists couldn't just come in from elsewhere - I also agree that it's only a matter of time for domestic flights as well for the same reasoning.
It's also too early to completely assume that this will wipe out air travel, MSY-MSP has been reporting options that would allow you to have your 1 electronic (laptop or iPad for business traveler) + 1 phone which is what I would guess we'd see accompanied by more stringent searching of those devices (if that technology exists).
I do agree a full-fledged ban for domestic and international will completely kill the economy and in particular take down most of the airlines.
My bigger concern remains the lithium battery issue and how they solve it.
If we assume the ban will go in place, the ideal outcome (based on the fact that one outcome is a complete ban in the hold and in the cabin) for me would be 1 laptop/iPad with enhanced security and 1 cellphone, no electronics in the hold.
And I am still hearing from various sources that the 1+1 option is very much on the table. Its not the greatest option, but it is definitely better than nothing larger than a cellphone. It is also the option I expect to be the outcome of this once the ban is announced and implemented.
The EU was apparently given enough information at this meeting that they agreed that significant limitations were likely required. However, they still do not want these items in the hold of the aircraft. One thing I noticed from the FT article was this quote “EU and US officials will meet again in Washington next week to discuss the technical practicalities of extending the ban.” It looks like they have agreed to the ban, but need to work out the particulars of how it will work. My read on this is , how do we implement this and not kill all travel.
The US apparently proposed/discussed two things that they want to see if they were to allow more than a cellphone. The first apparently was 100% screening of all electronics at the primary screening checkpoint and random screening of electronics prior to boarding for all flights that enter US controlled airspace regardless of destination. Alternative, was 100% screening at a checkpoint/gate area for these flights, if not implemented at the primary checkpoint. The second apparently was no gate checking of electronics. They would have to be checked at check-in or forfeited. The US is wanting the devices to go through a full screening process before being loaded on the plane.
The interesting thing that could be very troublesome is the inclusion of US airspace in the restrictions. It is going to grab a whole lot of routes that people don’t often think about.
https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/inte...erflight_fees/ shows a map of the areas that could be impacted by the US airspace restriction. It is absolutely huge. It pretty much covers anything from Europe to Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, anything form the Western Hemisphere to Asia, almost any flight from South and Central America to Canada, and almost everything out of New Zealand other than Australia and South America. I guess you could get creative with your routings on some of these, but I am not sure this would be possible or economically feasible. I honestly had no idea the US controlled this much of the worlds airspace.
This reminds me of the initial days of the liquid ban years ago. The UK went first, followed by the US. Shortly thereafter, the rest of the world joined in on it. I feel that this is where this is going to end up. It is just a matter of time.
Now I have heard that there is a potential wild card out there that may stop the ban in its tracks. It is something that I have seen next to no discussion of around here, and it has nothing to do with the governments. It is the insurance companies that insure the aircraft. There is a very high possibility that the insurance companies for the airlines and the aircraft will either not cover an aircraft loss when large numbers of electronics are carried in the hold, or they may charge an extremely high premium for coverage when this is true. These guys look at the actual risks associated with this type of carriage, and it is a known risk that has brought down 2 airplanes already and led to the ban on these items as cargo on passenger planes. All it takes is one of these to get too hot and its game over. Imagine what would happen if the insurance guys said we aren’t going to cover you if you allow this in the hold, or we are going to charge you 1000% more for this coverage.