I imagine I'll be burned at the stake for FT heresy by discouraging someone from doing what FTers do, the relentless pursuit of status and miles, but...

Assuming your "natural travel" would be 10k miles... you could flat out buy the extra 10,000 AS miles you would earn for hitting MVP for about $200 (buy extra miles with one of your PUW/LWS/GEG tickets). In subsequent years, that's $300. Good luck finding 10,000 miles of EQM flying for 2-3 cents per mile. You'll need it.

So, what do you value occasional upgrades and better seating? You have the credit card so you get a bag already.

I don't think that based on how flights are priced these days most mileage runs make a lot of economic sense unless you put outsized value in plastic cards that stroke your ego for being "special". If "natural travel" puts you close to a new tier... well, OK, maybe a couple hundred to get you over the hump makes sense. Maybe that Hawaii or Europe vacation or visiting friends in NYC becomes more appealing. If you really enjoy travel, then sure. But I don't think airline status stands on its own as something to chase for no reason other than to have status.