I would check it provided it's an aircraft that carries its cargo in one of those metal bins.
Gate check may involve them throwing the bag down the chute - that's worse than it going through the carousel.
Sky check means it's going in the cargo hold by throwing bags on top of each other (no steel bins). I'd avoid aircraft that sky check bags because that means all bags are thrown one on top of the other.
If you have to sky check, wait until the very end. Let the person throwing in the bags know that it's very fragile and sentimental for you. Maybe they'll be gentler and since it's the first bag out on the other side, that may increase your chances of retrieving your bag with its content undamaged.