Since the change to the front cabin being Business rather than First I think the availability of confirmable domestic upgrades has declined, as Fare Class A was required and it was a revenue class so was often available. Now Fare Class C is required and it is only an upgrade class and is much, much more rarely available.

Your lack of status (and EQDs later this year) will lessen your chances, but you shouldn't overestimate how few people are generally waitlisting for C, and C is often (but not always) made available before X is (the class for complementary and sticker upgrades).