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AFAIK there are no data points on someone cutting it this closely and documenting the results.

In any case, Citi is "famously" known for counting time sloppily, and sometimes the sloppiness may be in your favor but other times the sloppiness may hurt you. Thus we recommend the risk-averse to wait at least 25 full calendar months to be safe. (And thus just one or two datapoints wouldn't prove much anyway.)

But at this point, there's nothing you can do about it, since you've already been approved and thus your card account has already been opened. You'll either get the bonus or you won't. Wait until you've gotten the card and activated it, and then contact Citi and ask them how much you have to spend by what date to get what signup bonus. (Asking them for the date makes them give you your specific bonus, if there is one, rather than just citing the offer you signed up for, which wouldn't prove anything.) If they give you an actual date (which is probably about 3 months plus 14 days from your approval date), you're almost certain to get the bonus. But if instead they tell you they see no bonus at all in your account, you're almost certain not to get the bonus. (If they just tell you "in the first 3 months", ie, not a specific date, HUCA.)

That's the only way you can determine that before doing all the required spend, since with the business card you neither get confirmation of a bonus in the welcome letter nor do you get an online tracker.

And don't contact them until you have the card in hand, as they may not have made the determination about the bonus long before then. (It's not clear to us how many days after approval they make that determination about the bonus. Since you can get approved without getting a bonus, determining whether you'll get the bonus is very likely to be a separate step done by people other that the credit assessment people who approved you.)