Originally Posted by ChiefNWA

I wanted to start this thread just to see what everyone's opinions are. I think there are several recent developments which may greatly alter the future of Seattle, at least in the way of international expansion.

Factors
- Korean JV. DL is looking at another ~10% cut in capacity across the Pacific.
- DL sees a surplus of widebody capacity, especially across the Pacific, which has already seen the largest of cuts throughout the system.
- 747s are leaving the fleet this year, being replaced (unevenly) by A350s.

Bastian sees the KE JV as a huge win for DL (not disagreeing) but I do think that announcement will commence the real decrease in capacity to Asia. In the next several years I see NRT being completely dismantled, including Guam and Saipan. TBH, over the next severla years I think DL will try to get one more HND slot, and use HND as their sole airport serving Tokyo and remove NRT from the equation completely. The remaining Intra-Asia flights will be cut in lieu of KE's feed through ICN. Bastian is also very excited for the new terminal in ICN which opens later this year.

On the call, and clarification later on, DL will more than likely be deferring or converting some of their widebody orders. Cutting out all of Intra-Asia and reducing capacity across the board in order to focus on ICN, means they won't need the extra lift. The 747s, as we all know, will be gone by EOY. The first A350s won't be arriving on property for another several months and I don't see DL taking delivery of all of them. My guess... they'll take 15, convert 10 to domestic A321s or neo and defer the A330 order a few years in order to push the 767s a little more. 3 767ERs will be leaving the fleet by year end with more than expected to follow in 2018. So... capacity reduction is real across the board.

So, about Seattle. Seattle originally was going to be DL's Asian gateway and the A350s were going to be deployed out there pretty quickly. Expectations were that TPE, KIX (again), MNL or even SIN were going to be added to SEA at one point. I don't think that will be the case anymore personally. Since DL is feeling the pain across the Pacific right now, I think they'll focus on feeding ICN more than anything, making NRT/HND, HKG, PVG and PEK single spokes from the US, and connections onward to MNL and SIN on KE. The 350s will more than likely takeover the DTW-Asia routes and SYD, which should take up at least 6-8 frames, which wouldn't leave much (in my scenario) for a SEA operation, let alone a base. I wouldn't be surprised to see PVG and PEK cut from SEA either, with an upgauge of equipment to ICN.

Disclaimer: I'm not a SEA hater as many on here seem to be. I'm simply looking at the market as it exists right now and making my own predictions.