Originally Posted by
east_west
ICN is the 5th largest non-NA foreign destination from the USA (in order, London, Tokyo, Paris, Frankfurt, Seoul). ICN (5.43M px/yr) has nearly the same passenger traffic as all of mainland China combined (5.95M px/yr). [Source: DOT US International Air Passenger and Freight Statistics Report for December 2015, for YE 2015]
ICN serves far more than tech -- it serves significant military/defense contractors (east coast heavy), students, entertainment industry, family travel, and tourism.
If ICN is too much lift for a 350 seat aircraft, UA is going to have a serious problem figuring out what to do with the new 77W frames.
UA doesn't have the benefit of JV feed on the ICN end and neither KE/OZ have JV feed on the NA-end, until the DL tieup with KE completes. UA should be able to compete for this market. This reinforces my point that UA is retreating from ICN to avoid the coming DL/KE combo with connecting flights on both ends.
BKK and ICN aren't comparable for many reasons.
SFO-ICN was a 777 for some time before the 747 fleet was consolidated at SFO, and while it also operated with a 747 at other points in the relatively recent past before that, it suggests to me that United does not necessarily need the high capacity of a 747 to make the route economical. The fact that a market can generate a high volume of traffic does not make it axiomatic that a carrier must deploy its highest gauge on the route to turn a profit.
IMO the SFO-ICN downgauge has more to do with the 747 retirement and the prospect that the company might have more lucrative opportunities on which to deploy the 77W for now. That leaves only the 772 and 787 as alternatives. The 789 and 772 are close in capacity (789 with materially lower operating costs) and it appears UA is orienting the 772 fleet to IAH/EWR/ORD. Making changes based on the DL/KE MOU (a revenue-sharing JV is not close to implementation) seems a bit speculative, at present.
Originally Posted by
PsiFighter37
I don't think SFO-KIX has ever had a 744 on it? Thought that was always a Dreamliner route.
I believe it went to a 747 around the same time the fleet was focused on SFO, as was TPE, IIRC.