But the chances of a standby passenger getting on the flight doesn't depend on how many pax have a seat assigned, it depends on the number of confirmed pax on the flight, less no-shows/misconducts etc. Or am I missing something here?
Did you actually mean misconnect? I know there are a lot of pax that can be accused of misconduct but I don't think the airlines are figuring them in load factor, at least not yet?