Thanks Eastbay1K - I don't want to wait an hour for Caltrain.
The Uber app and another I looked up (rometorio maybe) had it priced at $25-$35 and 17 min for Uber XL Oakland to hotel. I'd be willing to pay that to save 45 minutes on Amtrak + transfer to a bus + get a car for that last mile.
Or doesn't that sound like an accurate estimate to you locals? Arrival would be around 9:30 pm on a weeknight.