pinniped

Internationally, I'm seeing a lot of fares coming back into their traditional ranges. Not quite as sky-high as 2-3 years ago, perhaps thanks to stronger LCC competition on routes that didn't have them before.

I think the original premise holds true in limited areas. Simple U.S. and U.S./Canada is one example where ten years ago I'd have never redeemed an award but now I do semi-often. Lack of competition has driven prices high, but the airlines have so much marketing capital invested in the "25,000 mile award" that they haven't yet adjusted that part of the award chart. They can (and do) tighten availability, but if you're flexible you can get your seats. Fly a less-popular route where a monopoly exists and you can get over 2cpm without working too hard.

The problem with the rest of the award chart is that if airfares go up too much they'll just reset the chart. They never featured the "90,000-mile J seat to North Asia" in their mainstream credit card offers, so it was easy to crank up the miles required without anyone noticing (except us, of course).