I don't think CX will go the way of the US carriers. HK is a sole geographic hub, which means CX can afford to have far better global connectivity than any of the US airlines can ever hope for out of a single port.

CX's current problem is mgmt is clueless as to what their airline is and what direction they're heading. This is a big period of change for CX...they're moving out from being a HK airline to a global mega airline with HK as the hub. It doesn't help that management is not the best and they've mismanaged a few things. Routine fuel speculation losses don't help because when there's a hole to plug like that someone loses out - there's no free lunch. If CX weren't in HK, you'd have a great scenario for an activist to come in and shake up the whole business and roll some heads.

CX's ideal scenario is to turn into a ME type airline. It's possible - CX is geographically blessed between China and SE Asia, with ideal connections from both Europe and North America. Geographic positioning with a sole-hub operation is key for that model to work. CX has both.

But CX will need to invest heavily in premium up front, and win in Y class on price, to ensure stable loads (no matter what people say, Y class on EK and QR does not look fun...IMO). Right now, CX is charging the ex-HKG crew an arm and a leg for regional Y, but cut services in-line with its rock-bottom long-haul transit Y fares. Meanwhile CX is moving towards the ME-style cheaper J fares, particularly at outports, but still expecting us in HKG to pay for the regional J...which is a joke. They are struggling to balance the heavy increase in transit passengers (and the competitive fares required) with the extremely high-yielding local HK market. Increasing transit pax, in turn, are a result of massive capacity additions.

FWIW, I think adding capacity is the right thing....they can't exist as a niche HK-specific airline in the future, IMO. The market is too competitive and eventually some regional competitor will swoop in and start offering great rates.

Anyway, I really don't think CX will ever end up like the US carriers. No matter how mismanaged they are. CX is a quasi-national asset in Hong Kong. Unfortunately, because of HK's special political status and CX's colonial legacy, CX will never get the full state support it needs like the ME carriers backing EK, QR, etc. Instead, CX exists in this weird place between free market business and "crony capitalism" as I call it. It is de facto seen as HK's carrier, they get shameless political support via HKIA, but it's still a private business. It's not a perfect situation. But I think they'll absorb some of these capacity increases and eventually figure it out. Firing Ivan Chu would be a nice start.