Originally Posted by
ClipperDelta
Couple of things to bear in mind with MSP-HND loads:
1) Route is starting in the winter, traditionally a weak time for all international routes not touching the Southern Hemisphere. No airline starts an expensive long-haul route in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter unless forced to.
2) MSP-HND only went on sale in early September 2016 (as final DOT approval wasn't granted until then), for an end of October start date. That's not a lot of notice to get advance bookings (many pax who might be candidates for such a route have already made their bookings on other flights)...notice that Delta usually announces new international routes anywhere from 7 to 11 months ahead (e.g., ATL-ICN was announced in Sep 2016 for a June 2017 start; JFK-LIS and JFK-TXL bookable in Oct 2016 for an end-of-May 2017 start)
MSP-HND isn't a totally new route. It's taking over MSP-NRT with a similar schedule. It appears that many of the criticisms AA had for the potential of the route are coming true -- MSP-NRT was dependent on connections on both sides, whereas with MSP-HND, the benefit is virtually gone on the other side.
The only ways I see MSP-HND succeeding in the long run is to underprice it for any TYO-terminating itinerary relative to NRT. MSP-HND should always be part of the cheapest itinerary offered, whether you're flying in from NYC, CHI, WAS, or even circuitous locations like SFO. Routes to TPE/MNL/SIN/GUM via NRT can continue to be competitively priced, but terminating in NRT should be made more expensive.
The other way would be to convince ST partners to offer intra-Asia flights timed after the arrival of DL's flights and sell those as viable connections. A few schedule adjustments and pax can connect onto GMP, TSA, SHA/PVG and CGK. However, it would be difficult for DL to sell this idea to them because HND O&D is obviously strong enough on its own, and given the slot restrictions, I don't see much incentive for GA, CI, KE and MU to change their schedules that may give less favor to O&D travelers.