Originally Posted by
sbm12
I'm trying to think of a miles buying opportunity that was so spectacular as to justify speculatively acquire large volumes of them. It is true that a deal might not repeat. But they typically have more or less the same for years. And investing real money in points on a speculative basis is unlikely to deliver solid returns over time.
When it happens it is often immediate or with only a few weeks notice; at this point even getting 90 days warning is unlikely. It might not happen all that often, but when it does it comes quick.
I don't think you are disagreeing with me, but simply trying not to agree.
When Avianca offers 1.3 CPM I think it was I purchased! Hasn't happened in over a year and I have used some of them already and if I wanted to buy the miles right now today what would I pay? Quite a bit more which is too late if you have short 1-2 month windows max to get the flights. I didn't say buy buy buy I said buy to a certain level for ME and what works for ME. I don't have a family and don't need a million miles in several programs to use on a moments notice, but I do like to have a healthy balance to get me 2 business tickets to use at all times. I have probably 12-18 month turnover for my miles so they aren't getting dust for years.
Also I wasn't talking about notice for devaluation I was talking about the actual loss of value. You can take any devaluation and of course inflation causes miles to lose value via this avenue which is inevitable. When you diversify you hedge yourself against one program devaluing their sweet spot and then in comparison your other program is more advantageous. The announcement of when and how we can't control or predict so I don't worry about that. This diversity manages your risk and hedges yourself which is why I WOULD definitely advocate frequent travelers to diversify and build up your miles during promo times as long as you can burn em in 12-18 months. Hold for years? Hell no, but as we say earn (or buy when needed) and burn.