Given that many credit cards now offer 1-2% cashback, if you're not getting at least 1-2cpp for your redemption compared to the actual cash equivalent, you're not redeeming for good value.

Many people also forget the opportunity cost of award redemptions vs paid hotel stays/flights: you also lose out on award points and status points earned. (NB: some hotel programs also count award stays as qualifying)

Many people also forget the often very restrictive inventory of award tickets in booking flights, especially in premium cabins or on popular routes or on popular seasons/days.

Let's compare award seats to a special sale. For example, take a business class fare sale on oneworld, YYZ-LHR roundtrip, for $2000 all in. AAdvantage would cost you 57500 miles each way, before taxes. That's 115000 miles. Redeeming 115000 miles for YYZ-LHR would be bad value since that's spending about $1150-2300 in points (a valuation between 1-2cpm) for a flight that would cost $2000 to begin with, on top of giving you award and elite miles (YYZ-LHR is around 3500 miles each way). That's ignoring all taxes, potential YQ, and the extremely high LHR UK luxury tax.

Now compare award seats to a normal business class fare price: redeeming for the flights on Cathay business. YYZ-HKG on CX would be about $4500. At 140000 AA miles roundtrip, you nearly doubled your redemption value. But of course, award inventory for Cathay is hardly anything but reliable compared to the normal $4500 cash tickets that are wide open and available until end of schedule, even during peak holiday periods.

That's why with every program devaluation, it becomes more of a fool's game. Understandably, miles are "free" for many people, especially churners who rotate credit card signup bonuses. Banks don't give you free cash for just signing up for a credit card, but they will give you various points.

But the math is definitely changing and more and more people are better off just getting a cashback card, or even using a revenue-based point airline like Southwest or JetBlue.

Because if you're redeeming miles from legacy carriers like UA, AA, DL, for award tickets on economy flights, domestic flights, short-haul flights, flights on their own metal, chances are you are not getting good value compared to outright buying the ticket with cash. It's no better than spending those miles on a toaster under their shopping portals.