I think estimating UR at 2.1 cpp is VERY high. But of course, TPG will overestimate the value of points/miles to sell his credit cards. He says 100K signup offer will be worth $2.1K to you, much better than, say, $1.5K or $1.4K.

People like pointing to premium flights and aspiration travel to justify high cpp value. I understand this, I've done many first and business class flights. But just because I redeemed 60K miles for a $6K flight itinerary doesn't mean I got 10 cpp. After all, it took a lot of work to find that flight and I had to be flexible and work my schedule around the available dates for that award. I would've never paid $6K cash for that flight. Now if I could book that flight ANYTIME, that would be different. But that's just not the case.

For hotels, I find myself having a hard time getting anywhere close to 2 cpp consistently. Yes, I've done Bora Bora and I'm going to the Maldives in February. But those are special redemptions, but something I can do on a regular basis. I can't use my Hyatt points at a hotel in Chicago or Cleveland and consistently get 2 cpp. But I'm not one always looking to maximize value to the expense of my schedule. I know some people will intentionally look for the most expensive redemption even if it's not what they would've chosen if it weren't for this reason. That's not me.

The other thing that's almost never mentioned is that award redemptions don't earn points/miles. So a 25K Hyatt redemption for a $500 hotel isn't really worth 2 cpp, because I would be missing out on the points earned for a cash stay.

All that aside, I value my UR at 1.5 cpp. If I don't get that or more, I usually pay cash, especially with deals like Citi's 4th night free.