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Historically, the letter (for personal cards*) has not mentioned the bonus for people who did not qualify for the bonus (say, because they broke the 18/24 month open/close rule), and has mentioned the bonus people for people who did qualify for the bonus.

While there's of course no guarantee that Citi didn't just change the way these letters work last week, historically the letter spelling out the bonus means you will get the bonus, while the letter not spelling the bonus (for personal cards*) means you're not likely.

* Historically, Citi business cards have never mentioned the bonus in the letter. So for Citi business cards, you have to use other ways to verify that you qualified for the bonus.

The letter is specific to your already-opened account. Nothing specific to your already-opened account has ever had langauge about "if you've opened or closed a card", because they're already done that evaluation by the time they generate your approval letter. (That's one reason the letter is sent out a day or two after you're actually approved, because they don't know this yet at the exact moment of approval. Whether you're approved, and for what credit limit, is handled by a different "department" than whether you qualify for the bonus. They approve -- or decline -- you first, and then "someone" else -- human or computer, I don't know -- figures out whether you qualify for the bonus.)