pinniped

Mergers. That's what killed the game. The cartel doesn't need to give away perks and freebies to fill planes. They control all the supply, and they've finally gotten good keeping supply in check.

I found it really telling that when the DoJ subpoenas airlines for collusive behavior, Southwest is firmly considered as an "insider" along with the other big three. It used to be that at least for domestic U.S. travel, we could count on Southwest to act as a legitimate competitor.

At the end of the day, *both* credit card and actual flying miles (not to mention all other partners) are on the decline. The endgame is that these programs all are greatly reduced in importance (and expense) to the airlines.

The only silver lining is that this has caused them to actually try to sell (and reward those who buy) J/F seats. As such, they now are more likely to price them to sell (on most routes) than price them artificially high to give out as upgrades. I've actually bought paid J/F a couple times in the past 2 years because the price difference (confirmed at booking time) was in the same range as the value of an AA 500-mile upgrade credit. Granted, I was nudged there by high Y prices to begin with, but it's another example of how the airlines are slowly killing off the upgrade game.