Originally Posted by
chongcao
Banks withdraw from London is an overstatement. If anything is going to happen once UK completely withdrawn from the EU, you will see banks actually increase its foothold in London. Granted, some jobs will be moved. Sour grapes like JP Morgan may move 1,000 staff BACK to the EU, majority will continue their business as usual as many of the red tapes will be removed.
So based on above estimate, I still believe the EU economy will tank faster, which in turn makes ex-EU fares more reasonable after the initial shock. The banking link between the USA/Canada and the UK will further strengthen thus trans-Atlantic fares will be higher.
At last please respect your fellow FTer, another opinion might not be what you liked or what you would agree, call it 'dreaming' is unnecessary. May I remind you some courtesy words like 'I think' 'I don't agree' 'I believe'. In the end, we are all speculating (despite your profession and works may lead you to believe in certain outcomes).
Still be there, Boris? Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche... From what I read and hear they all are on the route to Dublin or Frankfurt. There is certainly so much uncertainty in the UK and uncertainty is the worst thing a bank enjoys. Even the fate of the nation is to my belief at jeopardy with Scotland drifting away, with Ireland being divided again (or Ulster drifting away).
There is not reason for any bank to stay in London (except that it is language wise more comfortable for the Americans) when you need to be afraid to get disconnected from what is one of the strongest markets worldwide.
And you refer to the financial situation on the continent: Greek is a country with about 11 Million people. The EU can swallow these problems. Germany currently however enjoys a balanced budget despite accepting 1.4 million refugees. The UK did not accept any refugees but still accepts massive new debt every year.
It is Boris and his friends trying to argue that the continent is to the detriment of the nation. Some of his lies have already been made public and it did not come as a surprise that they ran away as soon as they should have taken responsibility. Nigel Paul Farage obviously more enjoys to cash in his EU parliament pension than to take responsibility for the nation and the chaos he created.
I am glad and proud to travel on two passports (well, probably on a Scottish one later in my life) but following what happens in the UK from abroad is not anyhow fun any longer.