Originally Posted by
AlexM125
Correct me if I'm wrong but to hedge you have to find someone else who is willing to take the "bet." I'm not so sure many would be willing to bet on prices going a whole lot lower.
You'd be surprised, actually, but if going lower is your 'bet', why not abstain from hedging at all?
Hedging is ultimately gambling; no-one knows if the Iranian government should topple tomorrow and they proceed to block the Straits of Hormuz. Or if a massive industrial accident should befall a gigantic Russian installation far up in Siberia. Or if a drunk Super Tanker skipper drives his boat into Galveston, setting off a fire burning half the port to crisp.
You've got supposedly brainy people trying to work the odds out, but in most cases a coin toss would have been as much good.
In either case, no sane airline would hedge more than a relatively low percentage of their fuel, say 20-30%.