If you aren't staying in one chain enough to get status* then you should opt for the best deal every time and not be loyal to any one chain. You can factor in the points you will earn for the stay if you know you can get a certain value out of them.

*You'd need to get high enough status that matters (above what the hotel's co-branded card gives). So Hilton Diamond, Hyatt Diamond, SPG Platinum, etc.