I find I get upgraded CW to First about every other flight. I'm GGL and mostly flying to the Middle East and South Africa. I'm not a fan of First at night so often ask not to be upgraded when it looks likely - as I prefer a private CW window seat to the exposed First seats and all the noise from the galley at the rear of First (where one tends to end up).

I used to fly WTP to Riyadh and often was upgraded to CW.