A review of airline accidents from fiscal year (FY) 1980 (October 1979) through August 2011 shows that CRS would have prevented 3 fatal injuries to infants over 32 years.(2) The 3 fatalities that could have been averted occurred at Denver in November 1987, at Sioux City in July 1989, and at Charlotte in July 1994. No preventable fatalities have occurred since Charlotte, more than 17 years ago. In short, the empirical evidence is limited to 3 “saves” over 32 years and none in the past 17 years. The NTSB agrees that this is the extent of the empirical evidence.

The 3 preventable infant deaths occurred in an 8-year span, which constituted an unusual spike for this issue even in that era of much higher accident rates. In those 8 years (1987 through and including 1994), U.S. air carriers had a rate of 25 fatalities per every 100 million occupants. In the past 4 years the rate has fallen to 0.3 per 100 million occupants. As major accidents become increasingly rare, opportunities for additional saves also will become increasingly rare.
Yet FAA recognizes that the risk of incurring a preventable infant death is greater than zero, and therefore the possible benefit of requiring the use of CRS remains greater than zero. Nevertheless, given the experience of the past 17 years and the substantial and continuing reduction in fatality rates among passengers on air carrier aircraft, we can not assume more than 1 possible save every 10 to 15 years.