Originally Posted by
sethb
I have a little wager to offer you . . .
(1) We flip a coin 10 times. If the number of heads isn't 5, you pay me $10 each for the difference (either way, it represents an unhappy customer). Repeat 10 times. This is the probability of being unhappy with 10 passengers.
(2) We flip a coin 100 times. If the number of heads isn't 50, I pay you $10 each for the difference (either way). This is the probability of being unhappy with 100 customers.
You say they're equal, so that would be a fair bet. I'll pay you $20 to do it.
Your experiment is not based on probabilities but rather on raw numbers.
To do this correctly, since I am flying 10 flights, so should you.
Or alternatively, we both fly one flight.
Remember, the proposition was, the probability of not getting your meal on a flight is independent of the number of passengers on that flight, ceteris paribus.