From the perspective of a non-HK AM member and who never "buy/sell" Asia Miles, the biggest concern re: AM valuation has always been the short shell life of AM (between 3 and 4 years). The cost to renew expiring Asia Miles is prohibitively high, making them economically unviable. If you are an AM millionaire, there is only so much miles you can burn every year - keep in mind, some of us are just not interested in selling miles or any such activities that may not be entirely kosher.

So while your analysis above appears interesting, the underlying assumption behind your valuation rests on the presence of a "market" and the use of certain sites that is simply not advisable to most people who don't live in HK or mainland China. Note I am not making any moral judgement.

With AAdvantage significantly devaluing its miles next month and the disappearance of fuel surcharge on JAL awards due to very low jet fuel prices, Asia Miles, in my opinion, enjoy a certain, albeit temporary, advantage vs. AA/BA miles. Asia Miles still have fairly generous stopover policy and doesn't require you to pay for every flight segment separately. When fuel surcharges were high, AA miles' advantage was the ability to bypass them but now that fuel surcharges for both JL and CX have temporarily disappeared, that argument no longer holds water for the foreseeable future. However, the inability to keep Asia Miles from expiring within 3 to 4 years will cause headache for people who have too many Asia Miles and those who struggle to build up their balances. This year alone, I expect to earn millions of AM, mostly from non-flying activities but I haven't figured out how to allocate them since I know I will be unable to burn them at a reasonable pace. So this old thread is revived at a peculiar timing, I have been bothered by the question since yesterday. For this reason, I think the valuation of AM needs to take a hit for their expiration policy.