Something else to think about is likelihood of better routing space opening up before departure.

Based on my understanding of how AA award ticketing works - if you book an AA ticket and then change it at close-in to partner award it has to be re-ticketed so post devaluation that isn't feasible without re-pricing.

However if you take the JL/Partner award option now you should be able to move it to a more reasonable JL routing (e.g., SFOHND) close to departure without re-pricing post devaluation.

For that reason alone I'd take JL and worst case you end up with convoluted routing but the more likely outcome is you get a direct JL routing at some point between now and departure.