I can book LAX-NRT-HKG award in business for travel late this year which by itself is less than desireable with old AA seat and an overnight layover.
However based on comments here the new LAX-HKG route on AA is imminent and subsequently LAX-NRT will be dropped. I assume this will lead to AA rebooking us on non-stop to HKG.

Any thoughts on how good of a gamble is that?

Nonstop on CX is not available but i can do JL via kix (not a fan of angle flat seats though) as an alternative