No.

All of the "data" here is useless because we do not have the "what if" data to compare it to. I can say I missed on all my K fares last year but unless I know that someone else on the same flight with the same status on a W or Q or M fare did clear it is just conjecture. This is a part of the game where the company knows all the details and we know essentially none of them.

Feel free to pay more if you think that will get you more upgrades but there is no legitimate way to prove that it worked in the vast majority of scenarios.