Originally Posted by
AADFW
Thanks very much for your perspective on this. I suppose with seven (now six) days to go, I figured that Y6 on flight #1 probably represents an oversold or about to be oversold situation as Y0 does not just mean full but indeed oversold to the point that the airline won't oversell more. With only 2 left in W (I understand CX also oversells PE), I'm also assuming that there is very likely going to be a wave of PE to J opt-ups. Whether or not that will ultimately push a DM into the front is another question entirely.
I'd really love to hear from someone else on this who (a.) works for CX; (b.) has in the past; or (c.) has had experience analyzing these inventory figures with a reasonable track record of success.
The #1 question that needs to be answered is whether your flight is departing from HKG or whether you're departing from an outstation. If departing from HKG, then I wouldn't expect to get an op-up unless there's absolutely no seats left and you are top of the list.
Unfortunately, while EF does give a decent overview of loadings it is not infallible. I have had flights where 3 days out EF has said that W is still 4, Y9 and looking at the seat map (again, not an entirely accurate source) there was still 24 seats available yet I had an op-up from Y to J and bypassed PE. I've also been on a flight where everything was zero on my flight out of HKG, yet there ended up being a few seats left in PE and no one was upgraded.
The other thing to keep in mind is that last minute rush for award seats that could be released in the last 48-24 hours before the flight. If all but 1 are released, then if an op-up is needed you would also have to be at the very top of the status list on the flight.