FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Thai Airways to return to profitability next month.
Old Jan 8, 2016 | 4:05 am
  #17  
brunos
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Originally Posted by BinSabai
so conclusion is that there are pro's and con's for hedging or not hedging fuel prices, currencies and what ever
any hedging and also the decision not to hedge are at the end of the day an act of speculation
regarding TG's activities, at least we could say that TG was not very fortunate in using those tools...
Fair summary.
I would just add that TG was not fortunate in 2015, like other airlines. The oil price went down from approx 110 to 40. There is an opportunity loss when oil prices go down. But media tend to only focus on the losses in down markets, not on how much the airline saves on fuel costs when oil prices go up. Oil prices went from 20 to 140 in 2002-2008; hedging was very beneficial. Then hedging was bad in 2009 when oil prices went down from 140 to 40. It became useful again from 2009 to 2014 when prices shot from 40 to 120.
Just focusing on the loss side and not on the win side allows to write sensational media articles but fails to see the point. A systematic hedging policy allows to smooth costs and allow to focus on the airline business rather than on speculating on volatile oil prices.
Of course, the worse is selective hedging policy. Like removing a hedge after at the bottom of the oil market and putting it back at the top.
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