An update:
My newly rebooked SMF-PHX-DCA flights went pretty well. SMF-PHX arrived early; PHX-DCA was slightly delayed for about an hour. Frustrating, but not the end of the world. Baggage claim at DCA was, however, a nightmare... almost an hour wait at the carousel until the thing finally began moving!
Relatively speaking, it wasn't that bad; it could've been much worse.