I am curious as to what everyone thinks about which Marriott and Starwood brands will survive after Marriott-Starwood merger is completed. Obviously, many changes will not happen for quite some time after the merger...but what brands from Marriott and Starwood do you expect to survive in the end?

My guesses, looking at each hotel category (with current Starwood brands bolded):

LUXURY (now including Bulgari, Edition, JW Marriott, Luxury Collection, Ritz-Carlton, St. Regis, and W):

Bulgari is just a partnership and survives. Too small to care about.

Ritz-Carlton and St. Regis are the obvious established luxury brands and both survive--each is different enough in style and their geographical distribution surprisingly complements one another.

Luxury Collection survives, possibly even incorporating the best Autograph properties and eventually shifting the less luxurious properties into lesser known Autograph.

W and Edition are tricky. They both serve similar market niches. Since there are so many more Ws than Editions, I think W survives. Edition could survive, too, or become Ws or become a sub-brand of W (W Edition?).


UPPER-UPSCALE FULL SERVICE (Autograph Collection, Delta, Design Hotels, Gaylord, Le Meridien, Marriott, Marriott Executive Apartments, Marriott Vacation Club, Renaissance, Sheraton, Tribute Portfolio, Westin):

Autograph Collection survives and absorbs the new Tribute Portfolio, maybe losing a few of its most luxurious properties into the Luxury Collection.

Design Hotels survives--it offers Marriott too good a shot at more boutique, unique properties around the world in many locations where Marriott/Starwood have less or no presence. It's new but a very intriguing addition to Marriott in much the same way that Kimpton is for IHG. Current Design Hotels are still joining the SPG brand Design Hotels, knowing they will become part of the Marriott distribution. Marriott's distribution is even larger than Starwood's, so this is a win-win for Design Hotels and Marriott.

Marriott and Sheraton represent similar market niches--and there are 500+ of both chains. We know Marriott will survive--obviously! My guess it that Marriott absorbs some of the Sheraton hotels in the USA, and that Sheraton absorbs some Marriott properties abroad. The can differentiate between Marriott and Sheraton based on location, sector, average cost, expected market segment, etc. Marriott is better regarded in the USA, while Sheraton is better regarded abroad. The merger will give Marriott the power to push underperforming Sheratons in the USA into other brands as necessary. It's hard to imagine Sheraton being scrubbed--it has too much name recognition and a great reputation in Asia and Europe, where Marriott is weakest, and even in Africa, where Marriott now has Protea. Sheraton and Protea together give Marriott great brand separation in Africa in the same way that Marriott and Sheraton together provide better brand differentiation in Europe and Asia.

Le Meridien and Renaissance share similar market niches. Le Meridien is bigger with 140 or so hotels vs 100 or so for Renaissance. Either could continue to be the surviving brand, but Le Meridien is the slightly better brand with much bigger reputation abroad by far (it was originally French). Personally, I prefer Le Meridien's design aesthetic over the more mundane Renaissance style. Possible one survives and others are converted into one or possibly Westins.

Westin has 250 hotels and a very god business-oriented reputation with great resort properties worldwide. Marriott doesn't have this niche in its current line-up. Hard to imagine Westin doesn't survive. Westin could absorb some Renaissnace and some Le Meridien in different markets.

Gaylord and Delta always seemed like ugly stephchildren brands in the Marriott portfolio. With Starwood brand additions, it seems most likely these brands will not survive or will be regionalized. Brand savings here could be their death knell in such a massive portfolio. I see these eventually converting into Marriott or Sheraton brands.

UPSCALE SELECT SERVICE (AC Hotels, Aloft, Courtyard, Element, Four Points, Residence Inn, SpringHill Suites):

Courtyard has to survive. With 1,070 properties, this is the main select service business hotel in Marriott's portfolio.

Residence Inn will survive. With 718 properties, this is the main extended stay business hotel in Marriott's portfolio.

Springhill Suites has 300 properties, so is likely to survive. None of SPG brands overlap it well.

Element, Four Points, Aloft are more likely to be swallowed up by Courtyard. Perhaps one brand may survive: Element or Aloft. Four Points seem destined to become Courtyards.

UPPER-MIDSCALE FULL SERVICE (Protea):

Protea will survive for a time, but eventually transition into Marriotts and other brands are market niche suggests. I wouldn't be surprised if some Protea become Marriott and some eventually become Sheraton (a better brand name in Africa by far) I bet Marriott soon names them all "Protea by Marriott"...and then eventually converts them into the various Marriott brands as the market suggests. This gives Marriott better recognition and presence in Africa.

UPPER-MIDSCALE SELECT SERVICE (Fairfield Inn, TownePlace Suites):

no additions here, so not much likely to change for the near future.

ECONOMY SELECT SERVICE (Moxy):

no additions here, so not much likely to change for the near future.