Originally Posted by
ft101
... Anecdotal talk of being further up the queue for upgrades as they can be more confident you're travelling.
Not quite sure about that.
Usually, op-ups are decided after check-in is closed (about an hour before departure) and are based on your status (to make explanations short), simply because they need to know exactly how many pax to upgrade.
Even when the flight is super-over-booked, the op-up list is prepared ad-meritum.