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Old Nov 2, 2015 | 5:33 pm
  #44  
rankourabu
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Canada
Programs: UA*1K MM SK EBG LATAM BL AC*E50
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Originally Posted by CaptainEKAirbus
Bear in mind we're also basing our assumptions off of AC's first month at a new long haul route, in traditionally one of the slowest months for North America to Middle East flights.

For comparison's sake, UA appears to be offering flights to DXB from various US cities at almost the same price as AC. If we assume that both AC and UA are catering to similar markets from North America to DXB, and that AC's entry into the market doesn't dilute yields significantly, AC may be able to make DXB work.

I think it's important to remember that a significant portion of the passengers traveling between Canada and the MENA region/Indian sub-continent are not even using this joint venture that AC/LH have setup. For example, passengers traveling via PEK/PVG/HKG/LHR/AMS on the various Chinese and European carriers which make up a very significant percentage of the traffic ex-Canada to the aforementioned regions. These airlines will surely feel the most significant impact of EK/EY entering the market. This doesn't necessarily mean that AC/LH's joint venture is suddenly going to fall apart because of a lack of demand or decreasing yields.
UA's DXB flights depend on govt contractors obligated to fly a US airline based on the FlyAmerica act. Canada does not the same requirements.

Allowing EK/EY into the market freely (without the current subsidy to AC) - would at the very least put a huge dent in their TATL JV. But I agree with you, the bigger losers would be the likes of KL/AF who also funnel traffic via their hubs

And as for AC/UA fares being the same - it has nothing to do with market forces - the JV airlines fix prices. Check AC/UA flights into Europe - and you ll see they are the same.
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