On my most frequented route.. ZRH-YYZ my chances were:
1 in 47 million on AC
1 in 23 million on Swissair
Dorian
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Dorian's Star Alliance RTW Price Chart:
http://www.informationlab.com/rtw.htm
Blondebomber's Star Alliance Comparison Chart:
http://members.home.net/deercroft/starall00.html