I have a 1 in 185million+ chance on my next flight (YVR-HNL on a QF 763 but it didn;t vary for a CP 763).

I see the A-330 isn't available as a choice.

Playing around with it, it would seem that it has multipliers for origin and destination airports, month of year, airline and aircraft type. As AC*SE points out, it doesn't matter if the airline doesn't operate on that route or the particular aircraft model doesn't operate on the route.

The airline risk depends on whether the airline has has a fatal crash under its current incarnation. For my example above (keeping everything except airline constant), CP, QF, WN and BR were the safest at 1 in 185.3 m (all identical) with CI in the rear guard (1 in 2.3 m). Others I looked at were AC (36.2), CX (15.7), US (40.7), AA (43.0), SQ (22.8), BA (71.2), CA (6.2) and UA (45.6).

I changed the a/c type to a 737-300/400/500 and used SQ and CP (28.3 & 230.3 respectively). The ratio remained static at 8.12 so I would assume an airline and an aircraft type multiplier are being used.

[This message has been edited by terenz (edited 11-23-2000).]

[This message has been edited by terenz (edited 11-23-2000).]