The following are FACTS.
Pending a major shakeup, this is AA's future:
FACT: AA is committed to using PHL as its main TATL gateway. Expect most European expansion here. Also, look for upgauging of Europe routes.
FACT: JFK will remain primarily an O/D market. Expect modest expansion.
FACT: DFW will continue to be AA's main hub. Look for more A321s here.
FACT: CLT is new AA's best performing hub. It's not going anywhere, however there will likely be a reduction in intl flights.
FACT: ORD still needs some work, especially with intl flights, but is steadily improving.
FACT: MIA will expand and contract based on the LatAm economies. Right now, it's treading water until South America recovers.
FACT: LAX will see significant expansion, especially across the pacific, but also some domestic flights. Expect to see more/most 787s based here.
FACT: PHX will remain mostly stable. Expect a few TATL flights to be added here over the next few years, as well as a change in the aircraft mix.
FACT: DCA is slot constrained. No change.
The following are OPINIONS.
Feel free to take issue with anything below.
I agree with FWAAA regarding the article referenced above. Its a poorly thought out piece of crap. The author's entire premise is faulty, in that he assumes that nine hubs must be too many so one of them will have to go. We are talking about the largest airline in the world. Why are nine hubs too many? They're all in major cities with large catchment areas, and each one is profitable.
PHX is not PIT, CLE, MEM, or even CVG. The airport has a very competitive CPE, great weather, and decent infrastructure. Unlike the aforementioned former hubs, most of the AA flights in PHX are mainline, as opposed to express, and the hub is doing relatively well. This management team from HP/US grew up competing against WN there. They have the knowledge, skills, and ability to fight against any LCC that chooses to engage.
PHX is the sixth largest metro area in the US and is 350 miles from LAX. It mainly competes with DEN, SLC, and SAN for pax (and TUS to a lesser degree) . If AA pulled out, it would be ceding five million potential customers to another airline that would no doubt quickly set up shop at Sky Harbor. In the end, PHX will remain a (mostly domestic) hub for AA, providing relief for LAX, connecting pax, and servicing the sixth largest metro area in the country.
Regarding FWAAA's above comments regarding pmUS's low TATL yields...I'm not sure I understand the point of the criticism. Is it that pmUS doesn't know how to price efficiently? Or that pmUS helped drive pmAA into bankruptcy because of their low fares and "compliant workforce?"