Originally Posted by tj4212

Thanks all for your input!
Through my company, matches, and challenges I am pretty sure I can immediately get top-tier status at Marriott and Hilton. I do already have accounts at both so cannot get the "new account" bonuses. Given all this, I came up with the below table -- do you see any faults/oversights? Given that I am already SPG and switching would maybe earn me ~$200 more in points value (and then I would have more credit cards), I think it is not worth the hassle to switch to another program given that the SPG hotels are the most full-service anyway.

For all options, Nov '15 through Mar '16.
#Stays: 18
#Nights: 54 (18x3)
Avg price: $150/night
Total price: $8,100

SPG:
Arrival Points: 9,000 (500 per stay)
Points on spend: 32,400 (3 base + 1 for 4th point earned benefit)
CC Points on spend: 16,200 (8100*2 per dollar)
Promos: Irrelevant for non-participating hotels
Total: 57,600 points ($1440 at a valuation of 2.5cents per point)

Marriott:
Arrival Points: 4,500 (250 per stay)
Points on spend: 121,500 (10 base + 5 platinum)
CC Sign-up bonus: 50,000 (highest I can find)
CC Points on spend: 40,500 (8100*5 per dollar)
Q4 '15 Promo: 20,000 (my megabonus = 2x pts up to 20k)
Q1 '16 promo: unknown
Total: 236,500 points ($1655.50 at .7cents per point)

Hilton:
Arrival Points: 18,000 (1000 per stay)
Points on spend: 121,500 (10 base + 5 diamond)
CC Sign-up bonus: 60,000 (Hhonors Surpass card)
CC Points on spend: 97,200 (Surpass card gets 12 pts/dollar)
Q4 '15 Promo: 27,000 (double base points for 6 stays)
Q1 '16 Promo: unknown
Total: 323,700 points ($1618.50 at .5cents per point)