Some data points:

My Aviator Red, 3rd year, practically no spend at all, was transferred to a specialist very quickly and was able to waive the fee for me. No miles bonus offered.

DW’s Aviator Red, 3rd year, practically no spend at all, was transferred to a specialist very quickly and was able to waive the fee for me. 2x miles bonus on groceries, gas and utilities for next 90 days offered and accepted.

My Arrival+, 3rd year, lots of spend (~$15k), would not budge on any annual fee waiver or decrease or points bonus. Kept card as is since I use it as my main default card for 2% cashback when no category spend is available on another card and I don’t need to meet minimum spends anywhere.

DW’s Arrival+, 3rd year, lots of spend (~$15k), would not budge on any annual fee waiver or decrease or points bonus. Offered downgrade to Arrival, and took the offer to downgrade. No need for us both to pay the fee as she is an AU on my Arrival+. Pretty disappointed they wouldn’t budge at all though with how much we use these card and the 10% to 5% drop on redemption miles back.